25 Dec 2015

Week 16 Fantasy Football Bargains and Sleepers

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Bargain: Blake Bortles ($6,500).  Bortles has finally developed some consistency in what has turned into a really solid fantasy season.  He now has four straight games with over 25 points.  His matchup this week couldn’t get much better either as he faces a Saints defense that has given up more points to opposing quarterbacks than any other team in the league.  Don’t be scare by the fact that Bortles is playing on the road either.  He has actually averaged more points in road games this season.

Sleeper: Teddy Bridgewater ($5,200).  Last week Bridgewater had his best outing of the season racking up four touchdown passes and completing nearly 90 percent of his passes en route to just under 33 fantasy points.  The week before he had his second 300 yard passing game of the season.  With the Vikings making a playoff push and Adrian Peterson getting banged up, it seems they are starting to give the young quarterback more chances to make some plays.  The matchup with the Giants’ terrible pass defense couldn’t have come at a better time, then, for Bridgewater’s fantasy value.  If the Vikings continue to give Bridgewater the opportunity, look for him to greatly exceed his value this week against a defense that has given up over 300 yards passing to four of the last five quarterbacks it’s faced.

Running Back

Bargain: David Johnson ($5,800).  Coming off his 48 point bust out performance in week 15, Johnson is going to be an obvious bargain play at his cheap price tag.  Johnson is playing very well in this high-powered Cardinals offense, and seems to be getting better each week he starts.  Last week was the third straight game that he racked up over 100 total yards.  His matchup against Green Bay is not great, but it’s not enough to justify some a low price.  Green bay’s defense has allowed four different running backs to top 100 yards rushing this season; Johnson could easily become the fifth in this week’s home matchup.

Sleeper: Bilal Powell ($3,900).  Powell has been a PPR stud the last three weeks catching 20 total passes.  Not surprisingly he has also had three straight weeks of good scoring, topping 19 points each week.  His salary in that time has increased from $3,000 to $3,900 but he is still producing at a rate that is a major bang for your buck.  The Jets could easily be playing from behind this week against the Patriots, which will lead to more passing downs and more opportunities for Powell.  In other words, his PPR charged hot streak has a good chance to continue in week 16.

Wide Receiver

Bargain: Martavis Bryant ($5,600).  Since returning to the field Bryant has actually been a top 10 Wide Receiver in terms of fantasy scoring.  This week only four (possibly five if ODB plays) wide receivers have averaged more points per game.  Yet Bryant’s price tag is a full $2,000 less than the Brandon Marshall’s (the cheapest of those four).  He is also coming off a season high 10 catches and faces one of the worst defenses in the league in terms of points allowed to opposing wide receivers.

Sleeper: Jordan Matthews ($4,400).  Throughout this season Matthews has been incredibly frustrating because of his lack of consistency.  He has had four games with 20+ points, but also has four games with 5 points or less.  Still Matthews is coming off a 32 point outing, his best of the season.  Compared to other players with a similar price tag, Matthews has a higher ceiling and a higher chance of hitting that ceiling.  In a home matchup against a Redskins defense that has allowed a receiver to go over 100 yards in three of the last four weeks, he is definitely worth the taking a chance on.

Tight End

Bargain: Julius Thomas ($5,100).  After a sluggish start, Thomas has emerged has a top fantasy option at tight end on a consistent basis.  He has found the end zone and/or tallied 5+ catches in four of his last five games.  The Jags face a terrible Saints defense in what could easily turn into a shootout this week.

Sleeper:  Kyle Rudolph ($3,300).  Rudolph is a high risk, high reward play this week.  He has been wildly inconsistent this season, but if there was any week that he should be expected to score big this is it.  The Giants have allowed the second most points to opposing tight ends this season, including giving up over 90 yards to five different tight ends.  Given the Giants struggling pass defense and the Vikings appearing to let Bridgewater throw the ball some more, Rudolph should have plenty of opportunity this week to produce.  As a very low priced option, this is a great week to take the boom or bust risk that comes with rolling with Rudolph.